Asteroid 2024 YR4: Earth Safe, But Scientists Eye Historic Lunar Impact Chance in 2032
TORONTO, January 29, 2026 – Astronomers worldwide are refining their forecasts for asteroid 2024 YR4, a space rock once labelled a potential “city-killer.” While the threat to Earth has been effectively eliminated, a small but significant chance remains that it could strike the Moon in late 2032, an event scientists say would be the most energetic lunar impact ever witnessed by humanity.
From Planetary Threat to Celestial Spectacle
First detected in December 2024, asteroid 2024 YR4 initially caused concern with a non-zero probability of striking Earth in 2032. However, by February 2025, extensive tracking by agencies like NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) had drastically reduced the Earth-impact risk to near-zero. The asteroid is now classified as no longer posing a significant threat to our planet.
The focus has since shifted to its path relative to the Moon. Current analysis from data gathered over the past week, including new observations from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope, suggests the asteroid has an approximate 3-4 percent chance of colliding with the lunar surface on December 22, 2032.
Key Facts & Figures
| Attribute | Details |
|---|---|
| Designation | 2024 YR4 |
| Estimated Size | 40 to 90 metres (130-300 ft) – comparable to a football field or 15-storey building. |
| Mass Estimate | 33 million to 930 million kilograms (highly uncertain). |
| Potential Impact Date | December 22, 2032 (Lunar collision chance: ~3-4%). |
| Earth Impact Risk | Effectively ruled out (near-zero chance). |
| Discovery | December 2024. |
A Scientific Opportunity Amidst Caution
While an impact on the Moon poses no direct danger to life on Earth, it represents a unprecedented scientific opportunity. A collision would release energy equivalent to a large nuclear detonation, excavating lunar material from beneath the surface and providing a treasure trove of data about the Moon’s composition. Astronomers are already organising observation campaigns for 2032.
“We are preparing for the chance to see the most energetic lunar impact event ever recorded in human history,” stated a recent scientific publication cited in the latest data. Research into mitigation and reconnaissance strategies, including work referenced at the Canadian Automated Meteor Observatory, continues to advance planetary defence capabilities.
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I be worried about asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth?
No. As of the latest assessments, including data from the last week of January 2026, the asteroid 2024 YR4 no longer poses a significant impact threat to Earth. Its orbit has been sufficiently tracked to rule out a collision with our planet.
What would happen if it hit the Moon?
A lunar impact would create a bright flash visible from Earth with telescopes, and a new crater roughly the size of a football stadium. It would not affect Earth’s tides or orbit, but would provide scientists with invaluable data about impact dynamics and lunar geology.
How are scientists tracking it now?
Astronomers are using powerful telescopes, including the James Webb Space Telescope and the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope, to refine measurements of the asteroid’s exact path and rotation. This ongoing tracking will further clarify the odds of a lunar impact as the 2032 date approaches.