As of 12 February 2026, the global climate is at a critical juncture. The La Niña pattern that has influenced weather systems since the autumn of 2025 is officially weakening, with international meteorological agencies forecasting a rapid transition toward neutral conditions and a potential El Niño by summer.
Current Status: La Niña Advisory
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Climate Prediction Center maintain a La Niña Advisory. While equatorial sea surface temperatures remain below average across the central and eastern Pacific, the “collapse” of this pattern is underway.
- Transition Window: A 60% chance of shifting to ENSO-neutral between February and April 2026.
- Summer Outlook: Models suggest a rapid flip to El Niño conditions as early as June or July 2026.
- New Metrics: Scientists are implementing a new index to measure these events, accounting for baseline shifts caused by climate change.
Impact on Canada and the Prairies
The waning La Niña continues to steer the tail end of the Canadian winter, though its grip is loosening. In the Southern Canadian Prairies, concerns are mounting over persistent drought. While La Niña typically brings colder, snowier conditions to Western Canada, the current event has been “moderate” to “weak,” leaving some southern regions drier than normal.
Agricultural experts are watching the transition closely. A shift to El Niño later this year could bring significantly warmer temperatures and altered precipitation patterns for the 2026 growing season, potentially exacerbating moisture deficits in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Global Weather Anomalies
Despite the cooling influence of La Niña—which typically draws cold water to the surface and tempers global heat—January 2026 was recorded as the fifth-warmest January on record. This anomaly highlights the overwhelming influence of long-term climate warming, which now frequently offsets the cooling effects of La Niña cycles.
| Region | Current La Niña Impact | Spring 2026 Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Western Canada | Variable snowpack; lingering cold. | Transition to neutral; risk of dry spells. |
| Southern US/Mexico | Severe drought; warm and dry. | Potential for “Spring Break” in drought. |
| Pacific Ocean | Cooler surface temperatures. | Rapid warming; El Niño development. |
What to Expect Next
As the jet stream begins to shift northward and weaken over the eastern Pacific, the “steering” mechanism for winter storms will change. For Canadians, this means the predictable patterns of the last few months are ending. The primary concern for the remainder of Q1 2026 is the speed of the transition; a rapid flip from La Niña to El Niño is often associated with extreme weather volatility, including increased risk of spring floods in some regions and flash droughts in others.