Calgarians are being urged to prepare for a “polar opposite” shift in weather conditions as the unseasonably warm start to February comes to an abrupt end. Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) has issued a special weather statement for the City of Calgary and surrounding areas, effective Monday, 16 February 2026, warning of a significant return to winter conditions.
Current Conditions & Immediate Outlook
As of Monday morning, Calgary remains under clear skies with a light westerly wind, but the calm is expected to be short-lived. A potent winter storm is moving toward southern Alberta, bringing with it a drastic 32-degree temperature dip. While the city enjoyed mild temperatures recently, the overnight low for Monday is forecast to hit -10°C, with wind chills making it feel closer to -15°C.
Significant Snowfall Forecast
The primary concern for the week ahead is a heavy snowfall event beginning Monday evening and intensifying through Tuesday. Meteorologists are forecasting the following impacts for the Calgary region:
- Snow Accumulation: Estimates range from 20 cm to as much as 30 cm within the city limits, while some parts of southern Alberta could see up to 40 cm.
- Blowing Snow: Winds are expected to pick up on Tuesday, leading to poor visibility and hazardous driving conditions on major routes, including Highways 1 and 2.
- Extreme Cold: By mid-week, daytime highs are expected to struggle to reach -20°C, a sharp contrast to the Chinook-driven warmth experienced earlier this month.
Historical Context & Impact
Calgary is no stranger to rapid weather shifts, often influenced by Chinook winds that can raise temperatures by 20°C in a matter of hours. However, the scale of the upcoming temperature drop is notable. Historically, February in Calgary sees average highs of approximately -1°C and lows of -13°C. The projected plunge to -20°C highs places this week well below seasonal norms.
Local experts noted that while the recent warm spell provided a welcome “winter pause” for residents and boosted attendance at the Chinook Blast festival, the sudden return to deep freeze conditions may put a strain on local flora. However, horticulturalists suggest that most native trees and plants are resilient enough to handle these typical Albertan fluctuations.
Travel and Safety Advisory
With significant snowfall and blowing snow on the horizon, officials recommend:
- Monitoring updated alerts from Environment Canada.
- Ensuring vehicles are equipped with winter emergency kits.
- Allowing extra travel time for Tuesday morning and afternoon commutes.
- Dressing in layers to mitigate the risk of frostbite during the 32-degree temperature swing.
Last Updated: 11:17 AM MST, 16 February 2026. No active weather alerts are currently in effect, but statements remain active for the incoming system.