Canada Wire | Science & Technology Desk | 10 March 2026
NASA’s 1,300-Pound Satellite Makes Uncontrolled Reentry to Earth
TORONTO – A decommissioned NASA satellite the size of a grand piano is making an uncontrolled reentry into Earth’s atmosphere today, nearly 14 years after its launch. While the U.S. space agency says the risk to people on the ground is “extremely low,” the event highlights the growing challenge of managing space debris.
The spacecraft, known as Van Allen Probe A, was launched in August 2012 to study Earth’s radiation belts. Weighing approximately 1,300 pounds (600 kilograms), it far outlasted its original two-year mission. NASA and the U.S. Space Force predict it will reenter the atmosphere on 10 March 2026, with a best estimate of 7:45 p.m. ET, plus or minus 24 hours.
“Most of the spacecraft will burn up due to the extreme heat of reentry,” NASA stated in its latest advisory. “However, some components may survive and reach the Earth’s surface.” The agency calculates the probability of injury to anyone on the planet at about 1 in 4,200—a level it characterizes as posing “very low risk.”
The Science of Satellite Reentry
Satellite reentry is a complex process governed by orbital mechanics and atmospheric physics. According to NASA technical standards and research documents, a spacecraft is deliberately brought low enough that atmospheric drag increases, leading to a rapid, fiery descent. The agency requires programs to analyse reentry risks due to the “complexity of satellite reentry physics and material responses.”
Historical NASA studies, such as the Reusable Reentry Satellite (RRS) project, envisioned vehicles that could be recovered intact. In contrast, most end-of-life satellites, like Van Allen Probe A, undergo “uncontrolled” reentries where their final impact point cannot be precisely targeted.
The Van Allen Probes mission (formerly the Radiation Belt Storm Probes) was designed to explore the violent regions of charged particles that surround Earth. Probe A operated successfully for nearly seven years before being decommissioned. Its twin, Van Allen Probe B, reentered Earth’s atmosphere in 2024.
Today’s event underscores a broader issue: the increasing amount of defunct hardware in orbit. Space agencies worldwide follow mitigation guidelines to limit debris, but thousands of old satellites and rocket parts remain aloft. As one industry guide notes, “Reentry is achieved by lowering the satellite’s orbit so that atmospheric drag increases and leads to random reentry and breakup.”
NASA and international partners continuously track objects in space. The public can monitor reentry updates through the Space Force’s 18th Space Defense Squadron. For now, the agency reiterates that the chance of any debris causing harm is minimal—a reassurance backed by decades of similar events passing without incident.
With files from NASA, The Guardian, and Space.com. All times Eastern. Risk assessment based on NASA’s standard reentry probability models.