The global financial community has its eyes fixed on Santa Clara today, 25 February 2026, as NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) prepares to release its fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results after the closing bell. As the final member of the “Magnificent Seven” to report this season, NVIDIA’s performance is widely viewed as the ultimate litmus test for the sustainability of the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure boom.
Market expectations are exceptionally high, with analysts forecasting a 68% year-over-year revenue surge to approximately $66.1 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are projected to land between $1.52 and $1.54. These figures follow a record-breaking third quarter where the company reported $57.0 billion in revenue, driven by a massive $51.2 billion contribution from its Data Center division.
Key Metrics to Watch
- Data Center Revenue: Analysts at FactSet and Bloomberg are looking for roughly $61 billion in this segment alone. Investors are seeking confirmation that demand for Blackwell and Hopper architecture chips remains unsated by hyperscalers like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta.
- Forward Guidance: While Q4 results are expected to be strong, the market is hyper-focused on the April quarter outlook. Consensus estimates suggest NVIDIA may guide for $70 billion+ in the next period.
- Gross Margins: After maintaining margins in the mid-70% range, any compression due to Blackwell production ramp-up costs will be closely scrutinized.
- AI Spending Sentiment: CEO Jensen Huang’s commentary will be parsed for signs of “AI fatigue” or shifts in capital expenditure from major cloud providers.
Market Sentiment and Volatility
Despite NVIDIA being the only megacap tech stock to post significant gains in early 2026, shares have retreated approximately 8% from their October record highs. Interestingly, options traders are currently pricing in the smallest post-earnings price swing in three years, suggesting that while the stakes are high, the market may have already baked in a “beat and raise” scenario.
The report comes at a sensitive time for Wall Street, coinciding with broader market jitters following President Trump’s State of the Union address and ongoing skepticism regarding the immediate return on investment for AI software. A significant beat could revive the “AI trade” globally, while even a slight miss on guidance could trigger a broader tech sell-off.